The Great Concentration. Demography, Economy, Real Estate Values and the Development of Italian Metropolitan Cities

Two major events have impacted Italian cities: the economic crises of 2008 and 2012 and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. This research aims to verify whether, and if so how, Italy’s metropolitan cities, which play a role in regional areas, have transformed over the past decade. To examine this, real estate market values, which are considered an indicator of the attractiveness of cities, were examined, together with other variables describing the economic and demographic trends of the territory. Cluster analysis was chosen to represent the observed changes, aggregating cities according to common patterns. To obtain a long-term assessment the analysis considered the cities’ reactions between 2012 and 2022. The results revealed stable and rigorous trends. In the main cluster, which includes Milan, a process of economic-territorial concentration is observed, which is influenced neither by the 2008–2012 crisis or the pandemic. In the second cluster, peripheral metropolitan cities that have undergone very limited growth developments are identified. Finally, the third cluster consists of cities with growth opportunities and critical economic and demographic aspects.