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Equal prior probabilities: Can one do any better?

GARBOLINO, PAOLO
2007-01-01
2007
Inglese
172
85
93
Internazionale
Sì, ma tipo non specificato
Evidence evaluation; Bayes' theorem; Prior and posterior probabilities
This paper discusses recommendations concerning the use of prior probabilities that underlie recent, but in no way novel, proposals of presenting scientific evidence in terms of posterior probabilities, in the context sometimes referred to as the ‘full Bayes’ approach’. A chied issue of this procedure is a proposal that – given the unavailability of case-specific circumstancial information – scientists should consider the prior probabilities of the propositions under which scientific evidence is evaluated as equal. The discussion presented here draws the reader’s attention to the fact the philosophical foundations of such a recommendation (in particular, attempted justifications through the Principle of Maximum entropy (PME) are far more controversial than what is actually admitted by the advocates for their use in the theory and practice of forensic science. Invoking only basic assumptions and the mathematical rules of probability calculus, the authors of this paper propose an argument that shows that there can be other more feasible and defensible strategies for eliciting reasonable prior probabilities. It is solely demanded that the reasoner is willing to make up his mind seriously on certain standard issues of fairly general criminal cases, such as evidential relevance or the probability of a suspect’s guilt. However, because these issues pertain to the responsibility of the trier of the fact, it is argued here that scientists’ attempts to define appropriate prior probabilities should continue to be considered as untenable for the need.
none
1. Contributo su Rivista::1.1 Articolo su Rivista
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
262
Biedermann, A; Taroni, F; Garbolino, Paolo
3
1.1 Articolo su Rivista
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11578/1666
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