A deterministic model for measuring the attraction of the railway

The major world changes, such as the recent financial crisis, require a critical reflection on the global growth models. In transportation, the massive use of private resources for the management of individual transport is opposed to the limited resources used for public transport systems: normally, the higher costs of the former prevent the development of the latter, thus determining a disutility if referred to the welfare and a more fair distribution of the resources. Some virtuous examples at European level demonstrate the importance of a balance between the two addends. To this aim, the “Shift To Train” model is here presented: this deterministic model allows calculating the potential demand that the railway line could attract. The case study of three railway lines in the Italian region of Veneto highlights that this shift might be guaranteed if the services are improved and specific political measures are adopted. Among them, the paper identifies competitive frequency and travel times; alignment of the supply to the demand; improvement of the rolling stock, the stations, and the interchange areas; focus on pedestrians and bike corridors as the most important