EST: an exploratory model for Ecosystem Services in the Venice lagoon

The Venice lagoon is a complex socio-ecological system, where Ecosystem Services (ES) and benefits for people result as emergent properties from the interactions between ecological processes and human activities. Such a complex system is threatened by several drivers of change, including those connected to resource exploitation and ecosystem fruition, along with climate related drivers. EST (Ecosystem Services Screening Tool) is an exploratory numerical model based on dynamic system theory, aimed at investigating the interactions among the different ES, the lagoon resources and the social dynamics, and compare possible scenarios of evolution of the whole socio-ecological system. The conceptual model was inspired by the “Socialecological systems framework” and considers 13 Ecosystem Services, along with the biophysical component, represented by specific macrohabitats characterizing the lagoon seascape and key faunal groups, and the main groups of actors involved in services fruition. Increase in water temperature and relative sea level rise were provided as external forcings in the model, which also attempted to account for the feedbacks on services produced by the regulation of lagoon high tides through the closure of mobile gates. EST was implemented in Simile v. 6.1 software environment, as an attempt to improve its applicability for participatory modelling applications. Model development and parameterization is presented, and contrasting tendency scenarios are preliminarily explored, considering a 50 year time horizon. Scenarios included both changes in climate-related forcings and in governance choices aimed at preserving the biophysical component, ensuring ES sustainability.