Beyond green or grey: hydrogen corridors and the future of decarbonized transport

Hydrogen is increasingly being recognised as a key energy source for transport, with dedicated hydrogen corridors now under test on major transnational routes. However, existing scientific studies are scarce and fragmented, making them difficult to compare across phases, vehicle types, and territorial scales. This study examines the potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to reduce Well-to-Wheel (WtW) emissions from the Kufstein to Verona section of the Brenner Corridor. A combination of Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis is employed to quantify future emissions. Compared to the reference year (2.38 MtCO2eq, 60% of which comes from heavy transport), the most probable 2040 scenario, as determined by the Monte Carlo simulation, could reduce WtW emissions by 17%. Three hydrogen sourcing cases (best, base, and worst) reveal that the level of green hydrogen penetration has a fundamental impact on future emissions, with subscenario hydrogen emissions varying by up to a factor of 0.5.