Economic Feasibility of Vacant Public Housing Reuse: A Financial Valuation Model for Socially Sustainable Regeneration in Historic Urban Contexts

since the second half of the 20th century, Venice’s historic center has faced a long-term population drop driven by industrial changes and, more recently, by the gentrification effects of overtourism. Beyond the impact of tourist rentals, the available building stock is largely obsolete and high-priced, making the historic center inaccessible to many potential residents. This study investigates the potential to reverse this trend by reusing vacant publicly owned housing, specifically that managed by the Local Public Housing Agency. By analyzing a sample of 49 properties, the paper proposes an economically sustainable model for recovery and management that facilitates low-priced rents. Renovation costs are estimated using a combination of direct site surveys and linear regression analysis, while the financial plan relies on a self-financing mechanism where rental income covers mortgage loan repayments. The project demonstrates strong financial feasibility, with indicators such as Net Present Value and the Annual Debt Service Cover Ratio ensuring viability. Furthermore, the model allows for a rent reduction of nearly 30% below market rates, bringing fees closer to social housing standards. Ultimately, the outcomes indicate that this self-sufficient system can be extended to the city’s broader vacant building stock and replicated in different contexts, promoting favorable conditions for long-term repopulation.