Out of business: design constraints and financial burdens in repurposing dead shopping malls

The paper explores adaptive reuse options for abandoned shopping malls amid the so-called retail apocalypse, defined as the widespread closure of brick-and-mortar retail stores, largely driven by the rise of e-commerce and shifting consumer behavior. The research question deals with returning dead shopping centers to productive use through technically feasible and financially viable conversions. The focus is on repurposing rather than demolishing-and-rebuilding solutions, to reconcile functional obsolescence with substantial residual structural life. The four-stage methodology includes: identification of alternatives and criteria through a literature review; alternative ranking using multi-criteria evaluation, specifically the Analytical Hierarchy Process; concept design and cost appraisal; economic valuation using Discounted Cash Flow analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The method is tested on a case study identified with a survey of Italian dead and dying malls. Out of nine potential repurposing options, multi-criteria evaluation prioritizes a data center, followed by senior housing and a medical facility. Concept design tests suggest minimal invasive works for a data center, versus extensive reconfiguration for the residential and healthcare options. Base-case cash-flow analysis yields net present values and internal rates of return of €12.8 M/7.7% for the data center, €3.4 M/5.3% for senior housing, and €2.2 M/4.4% for the medical facility. Economic viability ranking is sensitive to changes in the discount rate. Results are also strongly affected by changes in revenue fundamentals. Simulation analysis shows that, depending on those fundamentals, the probability that the net present value exceeds zero is 75%, 85%, and barely 50%, respectively. Property book value hinders the feasibility of repurposing.