Summary Current global crisis and other trends highlight the need for a better understanding of future (medium/long term) developments in logistics and supply systems and networks worldwide in a context of sustainability. Quite surprisingly, even if logistics represent a relevant sector for global growth and trade, studies on future scenarios of logistics systems and supply networks – meaning shaping the trends and patterns of logistics and supply flows on a global scale in the medium/long term - turns out to be quite scant. On one hand, pure quantitative forecasts of logistics parameters and variables can be quite easily found in various sources, while, on the other hand, studies using qualitative and strategic approaches to build future scenarios are mostly developed for sectors different from logistics and transportation (eg, manufacturing). There is then the need to address the issue of scenario-building in the field of global logistics by using mainly strategic methods. We present some results of a study employing a quali-quantitative methodology based on the Scenario Planning Approach (SPA). It aims at providing a number of macro medium term scenarios in the field of global logistics and assessing the impacts on the European area. Following the literature and developing focus groups analyses and conducting a number of semi-structured interviews with global logistics players (demand and supply), major drivers of change and future challenges of logistics and supply networks are first identified and a number of strategic scenarios for tomorrow’s global supply networks are then built, each scenario being defined in terms of a “combination” strategic drivers. Results show that a prevailing model at macro level can be identified, in which two fundamentals sub-components will play a determinant role. In conclusion, Europe is likely to face a strenghtening of both its logistics and industrial capabilities – even if at a different pace of development with respect to emerging economies – in a context in which North African and Eastern European markets will play a fundamental role as logistics-production platforms.
Tomorrow's supply networks: future challenges, global perspectives and some opportunities for Europe
MAZZARINO, MARCO
2011-01-01
Abstract
Summary Current global crisis and other trends highlight the need for a better understanding of future (medium/long term) developments in logistics and supply systems and networks worldwide in a context of sustainability. Quite surprisingly, even if logistics represent a relevant sector for global growth and trade, studies on future scenarios of logistics systems and supply networks – meaning shaping the trends and patterns of logistics and supply flows on a global scale in the medium/long term - turns out to be quite scant. On one hand, pure quantitative forecasts of logistics parameters and variables can be quite easily found in various sources, while, on the other hand, studies using qualitative and strategic approaches to build future scenarios are mostly developed for sectors different from logistics and transportation (eg, manufacturing). There is then the need to address the issue of scenario-building in the field of global logistics by using mainly strategic methods. We present some results of a study employing a quali-quantitative methodology based on the Scenario Planning Approach (SPA). It aims at providing a number of macro medium term scenarios in the field of global logistics and assessing the impacts on the European area. Following the literature and developing focus groups analyses and conducting a number of semi-structured interviews with global logistics players (demand and supply), major drivers of change and future challenges of logistics and supply networks are first identified and a number of strategic scenarios for tomorrow’s global supply networks are then built, each scenario being defined in terms of a “combination” strategic drivers. Results show that a prevailing model at macro level can be identified, in which two fundamentals sub-components will play a determinant role. In conclusion, Europe is likely to face a strenghtening of both its logistics and industrial capabilities – even if at a different pace of development with respect to emerging economies – in a context in which North African and Eastern European markets will play a fundamental role as logistics-production platforms.
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